Above the Rim - NCAA Tournament Edition! - March 20th, 2008

Okay, well here is the moment you all have been waiting for… the release of my filled out bracket!

Now, before you all start copying my picks and tilting my odds with Las Vegas, let me warn you, this bracket has not been finalized quite yet, and it won't be until 10:59am. I still have some more analyzing to do. Especially since this season is the most college basketball I have ever watched in my life. This is only my second year out of college, and last year at this time I wasn’t my own employer, so never before have I been able to catch as many college basketball games as I would have liked to. Not to mention, outside of just this website, I also did some part-time work for a television station broadcasting games, so even my part-time job was to watch basketball!

So now that I have watched all of this basketball, I am now just as informed as the talking heads you see on television, and my bracket analysis is just as valid as any of them!

You can check out my picks by clicking on this link to my bracket.
You can also check out my radio host partner’s (Randy Appiah) picks here.

But before you take a look at that, I’ll give you a few notes on what I think will happen in this year’s 2008 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

East Region

• The Butler Bulldogs, one of my predicted sleeper picks for this year’s NCAA Tournament, may not be quite the sleeper pick I thought they would have been. They should win their first game against #10 South Alabama, but they will probably face Tennessee in the second round, and their great season ends there.
• You can look for an upset in the 5-12 match up in this region. Notre Dame showed considerable weakness in the Big East tournament, and I like what George Mason does on the defensive end. Considering how Marquette just swarmed Luke Harangody, ND is weak if he is taken out of the game. I expect George Mason to come through with this win, but it won’t be a magical ride to the Final Four this year… at least I don’t think so.
• Lastly, North Carolina will come through this region easily. Their closest game will probably come in the Elite 8 against what I presume will be Louisville. And while Louisville’s pressing defense could do wonders against UNC, in the end, Ty Lawson and Tyer Hansbrough will be too much.

Midwest Region

• One of my colleagues really likes Georgetown in this tournament, but I don’t. Their center Roy Hibbert can be taken out of the game too easily via fouls, thus the Hoyas will fall to Stephon Curry and Davidson in round two.
• Speaking of Davidson, obviously, they are only a #10 seed, and having them advance past round two makes them a “Cinderella” team I guess. So, they are my sleeper pick and you can read more on that here.
• I also have another “sleeper-esque” pick in USC. I actually think they are the team that will come out of this region. With Taj Gibson healthy, OJ Mayo finally has the help he has needed all season, and with their athleticism and ability to play great defense, they have all of the pieces you like to see in a tournament team. And that’s why you will be seeing them in this year’s Final Four.

South Region

• First, let me address the issue with Memphis. It is indeed entirely unfair that they will have to go through Houston, and possibly the University of Texas to win this region, when they are supposed to have the advantage as the #1 seed. They have had this issue in prior seasons, and to do it to them again is just wrong.
• That said, it is nothing to cry about. The games are to be played, and as a former college athlete, I never cared about playing at home versus playing on the road. Once I got between the lines, it didn’t matter where I was. Now, I’m not denying that teams and players have been effected by playing on the road, but I haven’t. And thus I don’t really think it is a legitimate excuse to lose a game. So Memphis and Calipari can gripe if they want (and I’m not saying that they have), but if they are really the #1 seed, then they can prove it by beating Texas anywhere and everywhere… or I guess in Houston as the case be.
  
• Having just said that, I have more bad news for Memphis. They don't want to play Pittsburgh in the Sweet 16. Pittsburgh is a tough bunch of guys. They can really slug it out with any team in America. Memphis has not seen any team like that this season, and the closest they have come to playing against a team like that was against Tennessee... and they lost! That's why I have said that the kind of competition they have late in the season is very important. I know they played a tough non-conference schedule, but that was a long time ago. Am I supposed to believe that they will just get reacclimated for the NCAA tournament by facing a #16 and #8 seed? No, it won’t happen. Pittsburgh will beat them up in the Sweet 16 and advance.
• Thus, I have Pittsburgh playing Texas in the Elite 8. Texas has a bunch of undersized, tough, forwards on their team, and they can bang with Pittsburgh, the same way they banged with UCLA and Kansas earlier this season. You will see Texas in this year’s Final Four.

West Region

• I don’t have a lot to say about this bracket. UCLA is going to win it. They don’t have to play much of anybody. UCONN is probably their most difficult matchup, and I don’t think UCONN will make it far enough to play UCLA.
• On the bottom part of the bracket you have Duke as the #2 seed. I like Duke’s game, and it will be another Sweet 16 appearance for Coach K. But the season ends there, with a very much under-recognized Xavier team knocking them off. Duke likes to spread the floor, but that won’t work against Xavier. They have athleticism at every position, and they will match up well with the Dukies. On the other side of the ball, all of Xavier’s starters average double-figure scoring, and that balance can take advantage of some of Duke’s defensive holes at the four and five positions.
  
• Drake is my sleeper pick in this region. I believe you’ll be seeing them make it all the way to the Sweet 16. They have great shooting from the outside, and I like wingmen Young and Houston off the dribble. They will beat Western Ky in their opening game, and they should pull the upset against UCONN in round two. The dream, however, ends against UCLA in the next round.

Final Four:

• As for my Final Four picks (Texas, UCLA, UNC, USC), I have Texas and UNC advancing. Texas will beat UCLA in the rematch of a game played earlier this season. Texas' guards are just to quick for UCLA, and while UCLA has great size, the big men of Texas are very athletic and haven't backed down against a match up with bigger post men yet.
• As for the UNC-USC matchup, UNC walks with this one as well. USC will have a wonderful run, but UNC has a great cast of players and is just too deep for them.
• The championship will go to... UNC. It pains me to say it, but they are playing great basketball right now. They have all of the pieces, and as long as Hansbrough comes to play, and they put forth the effort on defense, they will cut down the nets when it is all said and done.
  

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