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Unlike baseball, football isn’t as advanced in using statistics to understand the inner workings of the game—and rightfully so.
Football is a game in which emotion, discipline and reactionary movement play a big role in the game. Thus, limiting the game to measurements, averages, and times is almost ludicrous, which is why teams that continue to draft purely on NFL combine results amazes me.
That said, while football can’t be broken down into measurements like on-base-percentage and VORP, there are still very telling statistics that are good predictors of outcomes and wins.
One thing that may surprise many of you is that First Down Efficiency may have more to do with a team’s ability to win than just about any other thing that goes on throughout the course of a football game.
First Down Efficiency (FDE) measure’s how often a team is able to gain 4 or more yards on first down. Thus, a team that gets 4 yards or more on 7 of its 20 first down plays has a FDE percentage of 35%.
Why is FDE tied to a gain of 4 yards? Well, in football, it’s common practice that in order to keep an on offense “on schedule” and to avoid 3rd and long, a team must gain 4 yards so that they are left with nothing worse than 3rd and 6. The idea is that a team that has 3rd and 6 more often than 3rd and 7 or more is going to be able to move the ball down the field much better than a team that doesn’t.
So which teams have the best FDE?
The best teams in the NFL.
Of the top 10 teams in terms of FDE, 8 of them are considered playoff contenders, and 7 of them have 2 or fewer losses.
The best team on first down so far during the 2009 NFL season is New England. The Patriots get 4 or more yards on first down 56.8% of the time. That is extremely impressive for an offense that many of us view as a unit that likes to throw the ball deep down the field. It also goes to show us, how important first down is to a good team like the Patriots.
The Baltimore Ravens are also very good on first down, and they rank 2nd in the league in terms of FDE. While they are 3-3 on the season, many of their losses had more to do with their defense than their offense and they still have yet to lose a game by more than a single possession.
Other notable teams in the top 10 include Dallas, Denver, New Orleans, Philadelphia and the New York Giants.
The teams with good FDE’s that aren’t so good are the Panthers and the Dolphins. Both teams were very good a year ago, and each team is also very adept at running the football. So I wouldn’t even go so far as to say that they are the exceptions to the rule, because if we let the season play out, they might turn out to be even better than most of us think. In fact, with the Dolphins ranking 3rd in the NFL in FDE, I’m willing to bet that if they can tune down the offensive turnovers, they will look like a playoff team before the season is over.
As for the bottom of the barrel, the teams with poor records are the teams with horrible FDEs. The Buccaneers, Browns and Chiefs are the worst 3 teams in terms of FDE. Thanks to Steven Jackson, the Rams, aren’t quite that low, and the Titans are the 5th worst in terms of FDE.
However, in analyzing FDE, and using it as somewhat of a predictor of the future, I don’t really foresee the Minnesota Vikings being as good as their record and everyone makes them out to be. Despite having Adrian Peterson, one of the best offensive lines in football, and a savvy, veteran quarterback who knows how to get out of a bad play, the Vikings are the 4th worst team in terms of FDE, gaining 4 or more yards on first down just 40% of the time.
That really makes no sense whatsoever, and demonstrates a lack of a commitment to staying on schedule and making plays on first down. It also points to the risk/reward factor of Adrian Peterson. As good as he is, he and his offensive line definitely throw the Vikings off schedule on offense. If you want to say it’s the offensive line’s fault, then fine, but whoever is to blame, the Vikings still have the 9th worst percentage of runs for 4 or more yards. Yes, Peterson averages 5.9 yards per carry on first down, but as a team on first down, the Vikings are 24th in yards per touch, 25th in yards per pass attempt, and they get stuffed more on 1st down than all but 2 other teams in NFL.
So as a fan, I suggest that what you take away from this is simple. If your team isn’t good on first down, they probably aren’t going to be good on the rest of the downs. Everyone talks about the money down being 3rd down, and in some ways it is, but it’s no coincidence that what a team does on 1st down has a lot to do with how successful a team is on the remaining downs and in the wins and losses column.
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